{
  "studyId": "RSR-006",
  "title": "Commercial Construction and Nearby Theft Records",
  "sourceKind": "official_public_records",
  "period": "Projects issued and completed from 2020-07-01 through 2025-06-30",
  "sampleSize": 3997,
  "methodology": [
    "Selected completed non-residential Seattle permits lasting 14 to 730 days.",
    "Matched published SPD larceny-theft coordinates within 250 meters.",
    "Compared records per 1,000 project-days before, during, and after the permit-active interval."
  ],
  "findings": [
    "Nearby larceny records occurred at 259.142 per 1,000 project-days during the permit-active interval.",
    "The descriptive active-period rate was 0.97 times the one-year pre-period rate."
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "eligibleProjects": 3997,
    "acceptedLarcenyRecords": 172545,
    "radiusMeters": 250,
    "nearbyRecordCounts": {
      "pre": 390144,
      "active": 238871,
      "post": 396163
    },
    "exposureDays": {
      "pre": 1458905,
      "active": 921776,
      "post": 1458905
    },
    "recordsPerThousandProjectDays": {
      "pre": 267.422,
      "active": 259.142,
      "post": 271.548
    },
    "activeToPreRateRatio": 0.97,
    "relativeDifferencesPercent": {
      "activeVsPre": -3.1,
      "activeVsPost": -4.57
    },
    "rateRatioIntervals": {
      "activeVsPre": {
        "ratio": 0.969,
        "low": 0.964,
        "high": 0.974
      },
      "activeVsPost": {
        "ratio": 0.954,
        "low": 0.949,
        "high": 0.959
      }
    },
    "radiusSensitivity": [
      {
        "radiusMeters": 100,
        "counts": {
          "pre": 67961,
          "active": 43180,
          "post": 69949
        },
        "rates": {
          "pre": 46.584,
          "active": 46.844,
          "post": 47.946
        },
        "activeToPreRateRatio": 1.006
      },
      {
        "radiusMeters": 250,
        "counts": {
          "pre": 390144,
          "active": 238871,
          "post": 396163
        },
        "rates": {
          "pre": 267.422,
          "active": 259.142,
          "post": 271.548
        },
        "activeToPreRateRatio": 0.969
      },
      {
        "radiusMeters": 500,
        "counts": {
          "pre": 1366900,
          "active": 833090,
          "post": 1379341
        },
        "rates": {
          "pre": 936.936,
          "active": 903.788,
          "post": 945.463
        },
        "activeToPreRateRatio": 0.965
      }
    ],
    "projectRateSummary": {
      "pre": {
        "count": 3997,
        "mean": 267.42,
        "p50": 186.3,
        "p75": 353.42,
        "p90": 586.3,
        "p95": 836.16,
        "mean95Low": 258.152,
        "mean95High": 276.693
      },
      "active": {
        "count": 3997,
        "mean": 275.96,
        "p50": 187.5,
        "p75": 367.19,
        "p90": 628.64,
        "p95": 843.4,
        "mean95Low": 266.098,
        "mean95High": 285.822
      },
      "post": {
        "count": 3997,
        "mean": 271.55,
        "p50": 200,
        "p75": 378.08,
        "p90": 605.48,
        "p95": 816.99,
        "mean95Low": 262.451,
        "mean95High": 280.645
      }
    },
    "projectsWithAnyNearbyMatch": 3975,
    "projectsWithAnyNearbyMatchShare": 99.45,
    "repeatedMatching": {
      "totalProjectOffenseMatches": 1025178,
      "uniqueMatchedOffenses": 108337,
      "repeatedMatches": 916841
    },
    "eventStudy": {
      "relativeToIssueMonth": [
        {
          "relativeMonth": -12,
          "matches": 33241
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -11,
          "matches": 32782
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -10,
          "matches": 32701
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -9,
          "matches": 31754
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -8,
          "matches": 32936
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -7,
          "matches": 31948
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -6,
          "matches": 32803
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -5,
          "matches": 32070
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -4,
          "matches": 32067
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -3,
          "matches": 32516
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -2,
          "matches": 32284
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -1,
          "matches": 33347
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 0,
          "matches": 33269
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 1,
          "matches": 33642
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 2,
          "matches": 33427
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 3,
          "matches": 33602
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 4,
          "matches": 33566
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 5,
          "matches": 33408
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 6,
          "matches": 33857
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 7,
          "matches": 34063
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 8,
          "matches": 34881
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 9,
          "matches": 34239
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 10,
          "matches": 33812
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 11,
          "matches": 33490
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 12,
          "matches": 33862
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 13,
          "matches": 33765
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 14,
          "matches": 32996
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 15,
          "matches": 32955
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 16,
          "matches": 32007
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 17,
          "matches": 31901
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 18,
          "matches": 31248
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 19,
          "matches": 30561
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 20,
          "matches": 29223
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 21,
          "matches": 28891
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 22,
          "matches": 28259
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 23,
          "matches": 27333
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 24,
          "matches": 26951
        }
      ],
      "relativeToCompletionMonth": [
        {
          "relativeMonth": -12,
          "matches": 32452
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -11,
          "matches": 32228
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -10,
          "matches": 32655
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -9,
          "matches": 32695
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -8,
          "matches": 33650
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -7,
          "matches": 32851
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -6,
          "matches": 33741
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -5,
          "matches": 33958
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -4,
          "matches": 33927
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -3,
          "matches": 33255
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -2,
          "matches": 32952
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": -1,
          "matches": 33278
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 0,
          "matches": 32834
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 1,
          "matches": 33571
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 2,
          "matches": 33195
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 3,
          "matches": 33970
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 4,
          "matches": 33920
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 5,
          "matches": 32924
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 6,
          "matches": 33579
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 7,
          "matches": 32731
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 8,
          "matches": 32984
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 9,
          "matches": 32789
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 10,
          "matches": 32172
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 11,
          "matches": 31623
        },
        {
          "relativeMonth": 12,
          "matches": 31431
        }
      ]
    },
    "byPermitType": [
      {
        "type": "Addition/Alteration",
        "projects": 2885,
        "activeMatches": 172734,
        "activeProjectDays": 670446
      },
      {
        "type": "Tenant Improvment",
        "projects": 581,
        "activeMatches": 44025,
        "activeProjectDays": 94429
      },
      {
        "type": "Temporary",
        "projects": 26,
        "activeMatches": 467,
        "activeProjectDays": 2250
      },
      {
        "type": "Change of Use Only - No Construction",
        "projects": 28,
        "activeMatches": 903,
        "activeProjectDays": 5750
      },
      {
        "type": "Demolition",
        "projects": 277,
        "activeMatches": 11009,
        "activeProjectDays": 86809
      },
      {
        "type": "Roof",
        "projects": 91,
        "activeMatches": 4662,
        "activeProjectDays": 25019
      },
      {
        "type": "Grading",
        "projects": 22,
        "activeMatches": 300,
        "activeProjectDays": 5769
      },
      {
        "type": "New",
        "projects": 86,
        "activeMatches": 4709,
        "activeProjectDays": 30778
      }
    ],
    "unavailableBreakdowns": [
      "Permit records do not supply a stable neighborhood field in this extract.",
      "All accepted offense rows are already limited to the larceny-theft subcategory."
    ]
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Permit issue-to-completion is a permit-active proxy, not observed construction activity.",
    "SPD coordinates are blurred and overlapping project areas can count the same offense more than once.",
    "This is a descriptive association and does not establish that construction caused theft."
  ]
}