{
  "studyId": "RSR-020",
  "title": "Stable Hotspot or Temporary Spike?",
  "sourceKind": "official_public_records",
  "period": "2023-07-01 through 2026-06-30",
  "sampleSize": 1918,
  "methodology": [
    "Used the same accepted SPD snapshot and normalized blocks as RSR-002.",
    "Restricted the comparison universe to blocks with at least 12 records.",
    "Calculated top-decile membership across rolling 12-month windows."
  ],
  "findings": [
    "63.4% of top-decile block memberships remained top-decile 12 months later.",
    "32.2% of blocks that were elevated at least once were elevated in at least 75% of eligible windows."
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "eligibleBlocks": 1918,
    "rollingWindows": 25,
    "everElevatedBlocks": 388,
    "stableBlocks": 125,
    "stableShareOfEverElevated": 32.2,
    "twelveMonthMembershipRetention": 63.4,
    "medianPersistenceAmongEverElevated": 0.46,
    "twelveMonthRetentionCounts": {
      "retained": 1656,
      "eligible": 2613,
      "exited": 957
    },
    "windowDetails": [
      {
        "endMonth": "2024-06",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 195
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2024-07",
        "cutoff": 20,
        "elevatedBlocks": 215
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2024-08",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 195
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2024-09",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 201
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2024-10",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 205
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2024-11",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 203
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2024-12",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 201
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2025-01",
        "cutoff": 22,
        "elevatedBlocks": 196
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2025-02",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 204
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2025-03",
        "cutoff": 22,
        "elevatedBlocks": 195
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2025-04",
        "cutoff": 22,
        "elevatedBlocks": 201
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2025-05",
        "cutoff": 22,
        "elevatedBlocks": 197
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2025-06",
        "cutoff": 22,
        "elevatedBlocks": 205
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2025-07",
        "cutoff": 22,
        "elevatedBlocks": 198
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2025-08",
        "cutoff": 22,
        "elevatedBlocks": 196
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2025-09",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 202
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2025-10",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 204
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2025-11",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 199
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2025-12",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 196
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2026-01",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 202
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2026-02",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 200
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2026-03",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 200
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2026-04",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 197
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2026-05",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 195
      },
      {
        "endMonth": "2026-06",
        "cutoff": 21,
        "elevatedBlocks": 193
      }
    ],
    "transitions": [
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2024-06",
        "toEndMonth": "2024-07",
        "retained": 184,
        "exited": 11,
        "entered": 31
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2024-07",
        "toEndMonth": "2024-08",
        "retained": 183,
        "exited": 32,
        "entered": 12
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2024-08",
        "toEndMonth": "2024-09",
        "retained": 183,
        "exited": 12,
        "entered": 18
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2024-09",
        "toEndMonth": "2024-10",
        "retained": 187,
        "exited": 14,
        "entered": 18
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2024-10",
        "toEndMonth": "2024-11",
        "retained": 189,
        "exited": 16,
        "entered": 14
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2024-11",
        "toEndMonth": "2024-12",
        "retained": 190,
        "exited": 13,
        "entered": 11
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2024-12",
        "toEndMonth": "2025-01",
        "retained": 181,
        "exited": 20,
        "entered": 15
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2025-01",
        "toEndMonth": "2025-02",
        "retained": 189,
        "exited": 7,
        "entered": 15
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2025-02",
        "toEndMonth": "2025-03",
        "retained": 186,
        "exited": 18,
        "entered": 9
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2025-03",
        "toEndMonth": "2025-04",
        "retained": 182,
        "exited": 13,
        "entered": 19
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2025-04",
        "toEndMonth": "2025-05",
        "retained": 187,
        "exited": 14,
        "entered": 10
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2025-05",
        "toEndMonth": "2025-06",
        "retained": 189,
        "exited": 8,
        "entered": 16
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2025-06",
        "toEndMonth": "2025-07",
        "retained": 185,
        "exited": 20,
        "entered": 13
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2025-07",
        "toEndMonth": "2025-08",
        "retained": 180,
        "exited": 18,
        "entered": 16
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2025-08",
        "toEndMonth": "2025-09",
        "retained": 184,
        "exited": 12,
        "entered": 18
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2025-09",
        "toEndMonth": "2025-10",
        "retained": 186,
        "exited": 16,
        "entered": 18
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2025-10",
        "toEndMonth": "2025-11",
        "retained": 187,
        "exited": 17,
        "entered": 12
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2025-11",
        "toEndMonth": "2025-12",
        "retained": 185,
        "exited": 14,
        "entered": 11
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2025-12",
        "toEndMonth": "2026-01",
        "retained": 177,
        "exited": 19,
        "entered": 25
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2026-01",
        "toEndMonth": "2026-02",
        "retained": 186,
        "exited": 16,
        "entered": 14
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2026-02",
        "toEndMonth": "2026-03",
        "retained": 187,
        "exited": 13,
        "entered": 13
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2026-03",
        "toEndMonth": "2026-04",
        "retained": 182,
        "exited": 18,
        "entered": 15
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2026-04",
        "toEndMonth": "2026-05",
        "retained": 182,
        "exited": 15,
        "entered": 13
      },
      {
        "fromEndMonth": "2026-05",
        "toEndMonth": "2026-06",
        "retained": 178,
        "exited": 17,
        "entered": 15
      }
    ],
    "persistenceDistribution": [
      {
        "label": "0-24%",
        "blocks": 120
      },
      {
        "label": "25-49%",
        "blocks": 87
      },
      {
        "label": "50-74%",
        "blocks": 56
      },
      {
        "label": "75-100%",
        "blocks": 125
      }
    ],
    "sensitivity": [
      {
        "topPercent": 5,
        "stableThresholdPercent": 50,
        "everElevatedBlocks": 196,
        "stableBlocks": 94,
        "stableShare": 47.96
      },
      {
        "topPercent": 5,
        "stableThresholdPercent": 75,
        "everElevatedBlocks": 196,
        "stableBlocks": 60,
        "stableShare": 30.61
      },
      {
        "topPercent": 10,
        "stableThresholdPercent": 50,
        "everElevatedBlocks": 388,
        "stableBlocks": 181,
        "stableShare": 46.65
      },
      {
        "topPercent": 10,
        "stableThresholdPercent": 75,
        "everElevatedBlocks": 388,
        "stableBlocks": 125,
        "stableShare": 32.22
      },
      {
        "topPercent": 20,
        "stableThresholdPercent": 50,
        "everElevatedBlocks": 767,
        "stableBlocks": 384,
        "stableShare": 50.07
      },
      {
        "topPercent": 20,
        "stableThresholdPercent": 75,
        "everElevatedBlocks": 767,
        "stableBlocks": 263,
        "stableShare": 34.29
      }
    ],
    "eligibilitySensitivity": {
      "fullPeriodEligibleBlocks": 1918,
      "firstWindowBlocksWithAtLeastTwelveRecords": 524,
      "lookAheadRisk": "Primary eligibility uses the full study period; compare with contemporaneous-window eligibility before predictive use."
    }
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Hotspot and stable are study definitions, not official SPD classifications.",
    "Results describe persistence in published records and do not identify causal conditions."
  ]
}