Research · 2 min read
Disorder Reports Jumped 60% While Property Crime Didn't
311 is a reporting process: its volume surged independently of recorded crime, and it differs sharply by precinct.
Seattle reports a lot more disorder than it used to. Encampment reports climbed 60% across the study window and graffiti 57%, while recorded property crime stayed roughly flat. That gap — and the fact that precincts report very different amounts of disorder per crime recorded — is the real finding about 311.
Our analysis of 925,306 requests across 43 service types, july 1, 2023–june 30, 2026.
What do Seattle's 311 disorder reports actually tell you about property crime?
Across 925,306 Seattle 311 requests and three years of property-offense records, encampment reports rose 60% and graffiti 57% while recorded property crime stayed roughly flat — and precincts report between 3.70 and 5.37 disorder reports per recorded property crime. Disorder reports measure reporting behavior, not crime.
The numbers behind the answer
Selected measures only. Denominators and interpretation stay attached so the headline cannot stand alone.
925,306
Disorder requests in 35 months
Across 43 service types, from a feed that runs from 2013 to the present.
+60%
Change in encampment reports
First six months versus last six months of the window (3,720 to 5,955 per month).
3.7–5.4
Disorder reports per recorded property crime
West precinct reports 3.70 per recorded record, South 5.37 — a 45% spread across five precincts.
Disorder reports surged while recorded property crime did not
Across 35 months, encampment reports rose 60% and graffiti 57%, while abandoned-vehicle reports rose 19% and illegal dumping 13%. Recorded property crime over the same window did not follow. The two lines simply do not move together.
That alone should change how you read a 311 trend. A rising disorder line is evidence of rising reporting — more people using the app, more attention, more service demand. It is not a crime forecast, and treating it as one mistakes a reporting surge for a safety decline.
Evidence visual
Change in disorder reports, first six months vs last six
Percent change in monthly volume for the four largest disorder categories, July 2023–June 2026.
Precincts report very different amounts of disorder per crime
Normalizing by recorded property crime makes the reporting difference visible. Across Seattle's five precincts, disorder reports per recorded property-offense record range from 3.70 in the West to 5.37 in the South — a 45% spread. Two precincts with similar crime counts can look very different on a 311 map.
This is a reporting signal, not a risk ranking. It reflects who uses the app, what gets routed, and how residents and businesses engage — not which area is more or less safe. Read it as a measure of demand and attention, and never as a neighborhood verdict.
Evidence visual
Disorder reports per recorded property crime, by precinct
Aggregate 311 disorder reports divided by recorded property-offense records, July 2023–June 2026.
Treat 311 as a demand signal, and normalize before comparing
None of this makes 311 useless. It makes it a report on reporting: which services people ask for, where engagement is high, and how the mix is changing. Roughly nine in ten requests now arrive through the city's app, which is itself a signal about who is being heard.
Before comparing places or periods, normalize by population and channel, and resist the pull toward causation. The tract-level denominator that would sharpen this needs a geocoded pull and census data; the checklist below is what is defensible today.
- Read 311 as reporting behavior, not incidence.
- Compare the disorder trend to recorded crime, not instead of it.
- Normalize volume by population and reporting channel.
- Use precinct ratios to spot reporting differences, not risk.
- Never use 311 to forecast a specific property.
Questions property teams ask
Can 311 reports predict property crime?
Not reliably. Encampment and graffiti reports rose sharply while recorded property crime stayed roughly flat, and the month-to-month lead-lag is weak and direction-unstable.
Does a 60% rise in encampment reports mean encampments rose 60%?
No. It means reports rose 60%. Volume reflects both underlying activity and how many people report, so it cannot be read as an incidence change on its own.
Does a high precinct ratio mean that precinct is worse?
No. It means more disorder is reported there relative to recorded property crime. That is a reporting signal, not a safety ranking.
What would make this analysis stronger?
A geocoded pull joined to census tracts with population and reporting controls, plus weekly rather than monthly resolution.
Our methods, limits, and sources
How we calculated this
This is original 911 Sentinel research — we gathered the records, ran every calculation below, and published the aggregate dataset.
We aggregated Seattle 311 service requests and SPD property-offense records to monthly and precinct-level counts (July 2023–June 2026), compared category trends, computed disorder reports per recorded property crime by precinct, and examined lead-lag on differenced series.
- We pulled monthly 311 counts by service type, by precinct, and by intake method for 35 months.
- We pulled monthly property-offense counts by precinct.
- We computed per-category first-six vs last-six-month change and precinct disorder-to-crime ratios.
- We compared raw and differenced lead-lag correlations and ran Granger tests on differenced series.
What this analysis cannot establish
- 311 is a reporting process, not a disorder census; reporting propensity varies by neighborhood.
- Precinct comparisons are aggregate and ecological; they describe reporting behavior, not risk.
- Tract-level denominator normalization requires a geocoded full pull and is not yet applied.
- The trailing current month is dropped as incomplete.
- Monthly resolution can hide shorter dynamics.
Sources
The raw records come from the sources below; the study design, analysis, charts, and conclusions are our own.
Related questions and practical guides
New coverage — intake open
Separate reporting behavior from site conditions
A site assessment looks at the property itself — access, lighting, vacancy, and camera views — rather than inferring risk from citywide reporting patterns.